TA Demand Cycles: Have they changed forever?

Ben Rutter @ Bond Global and Aaron Beider @ Vertical Aerospace sit down for a chat to dive a little deeper into this topic.

Hiring demand in the past has often been linked to economic cycles…

It’s common practice to assume an economic cycle will last around 8-10 years. In that period, you are likely to experience a Boom and a Bust; with the Boom period driving a huge spike in hiring activity and the bust leading to redundancies.

HOWEVER, has COVID-19 potentially triggered a new trend to challenge the tried and tested 8-10 years?

Moving forward will we experience much shorter and volatile hiring demand cycles. Demand runs in 2–3-year cycles rather than 8-10 years?

The graph below represents this concept:

Purple = Hiring Demand

The purple curve shows the economic cycle and the change in demand.

Red = Rapid burst

What if the market booms again? What flexible power do you have to meet the gap between the resources you have in the team and what is required to meet the demand?

Green = Steady growth

What could your TA function look like if the market returns to a more steady growth pattern?

Option #1: We come out HOT 🔥

When the market comes back, there could be a surge of people very actively looking for new roles. They were perhaps made redundant and jumped into a job they hate or potentially they may have been treated badly over the last few years or had zero progression in that time. This could trigger a big merry go round of activity and cause another aggressive short-term hiring spike. This could also be magnified by venture capital releasing the capital they have been sitting on for the last two years at the same time.

Option #2: We come out slow and steady 🐢

Of course, we could come out slow and steady and return to a cycle of 8 years of incremental growth and a slow upward movement.

Predicting this is almost impossible. However, you can prepare and have a plan ready for either eventuality.

Prepare for volatility!

These days the markets are so volatile and to not prepare for a rollercoaster of volatility in a TA function is a dangerous game.

The one thing you can almost guarantee in TA is change to your demand plan over the next quarter quarter. Let alone the next 1-2 years. Therefore, having a plan ready is so important!